Abstract. We present a nonparametric approach based on local polynomial regression for ensemble forecast of time series. The state space is first reconstructed by embedding the univariate time series ...

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is increasingly critical for modelling complex systems in which input parameters or environmental conditions vary unpredictably. Polynomial chaos methods offer a ...

PNAS is the world's most-cited multidisciplinary scientific serial. It publishes high-impact research reports, commentaries, perspectives, reviews, colloquium papers, and actions of the Academy. In ...